ABNB Earnings Preview: Growth Narrative Faces 84% Risk

The Core Question

Investors are pricing ABNB at ~35x trailing P/E, which implies annual EPS growth of 13-15%. With North America nights at low-single-digit growth for 3+ consecutive quarters, does the data support this narrative?

For the full breakdown of our four-lens analysis on Airbnb's regulatory corridor and moat durability, read the deep dive here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

FY2026 Revenue Guidance >12%

Probability

16%

Model Agreement

0.94

Strong consensus

Our nine-model prediction ensemble assigns only 16% probability that Airbnb's FY2026 guidance will imply revenue growth above 12%. Current organic growth runs at 8-10% (Q1 +6%, Q2 +13%, Q3 +10%, Q4 guided +7-10%), and the ensemble identifies no near-term catalyst for 200-400 bps acceleration. See all seven active markets on the ABNB forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 12

FY2026 Revenue Guidance

Bull: >12%Bear: <8%

Central to valuation. Below 8% escalates the narrative-reality gap; above 12% would challenge the ensemble's 84% bearish view.

North America Nights Growth

Bull: >3%Bear: Negative

Fourth quarter of data at current levels. Negative growth (18% ensemble probability) would force a severe re-assessment of ~35x valuation.

EBITDA Margin Guidance

Bull: >36%Bear: <34%

Margin expansion provides a cushion for the growth deceleration narrative. Below 34% would compress EPS growth math further.

Regulatory Commentary

Bull: No escalationBear: New litigation

All four lenses independently flagged regulation as the dominant threat. Any mention of new legal actions, reserve changes, or NYC/Barcelona impact would escalate risk.

LATAM/APAC Nights Growth

Bull: Double-digitBear: Single-digit

Management's primary diversification narrative. LATAM at low-20s% and APAC at mid-teens%. Single-digit deceleration (17% probability) would invalidate “not close to mature” thesis.

Current Assessment

Airbnb is classified as “Price Above Value” at medium confidence. The business quality is genuine — 90% unpaid traffic, market share 28%→44%, $4.5B FCF at 38% margins. However, at ~35x P/E, the stock prices growth reacceleration that our ensemble assigns only 16% probability. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 12 earnings release.

Full four-lens analysis with regulatory risk mapping, competitive moat assessment, and all seven active prediction markets

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