ASTS: Dilution Market Resolves (Brier 0.09), 2 New Markets Added

AST SpaceMobile's prediction market portfolio shifted meaningfully after a February 2026 8-K disclosed $1B in convertible notes and $706M in ATM equity sales. One market resolved 10.5 months early, one prediction shifted +61 percentage points, and two new markets were added to maintain coverage. ASTS now has 8 active prediction markets tracking regulatory, deployment, and financial risk.

Resolved Market

Will ASTS conduct a dilutive offering >$200M by Dec 2026?YES

Brier Score: 0.09Ensemble predicted 70% YESResolved 10.5 months early

$1B convertible notes (2.25%, due 2036) + $706M ATM equity sales confirmed the structural funding gap all 9 models identified.

Prediction Shift

Will H2 2025 revenue meet guidance ($50M)?

30%91%+61pts

Preliminary FY2025 revenue of $63-71M (8-K, Feb 11) implies H2 revenue of ~$59-67M, well above the $50M threshold. Q4 alone needed $35.3M; preliminary data suggests it delivered.

New Markets Added

Will CTO Huiwen Yao depart by Dec 2026?

62%78% agreement

Will cash fall below $2B by Dec 2026?

30%84% agreement

Ensemble Consensus

The dilution market's Brier score of 0.09 is among the strongest calibration results in the portfolio — all 9 models correctly identified the structural funding gap. The two replacement markets fill coverage gaps in governance alignment (CTO departure signals) and capital deployment (burn rate vs. $3.7B cash). Meanwhile, the revenue guidance shift from 30% to 91% reflects the ensemble quickly incorporating hard SEC data over uncertain projections.

Track All 8 Active Markets

View probabilities, model agreement, and scoring history for every ASTS prediction market.

ASTS Forecasts