BKNG Earnings Preview: Parity Clause Damage at 15% Odds

The Core Question

At ~25x trailing P/E, BKNG appears to embed a meaningful discount for EU regulatory risk and AI disruption. Yet 14 months after the DMA parity clause ban, revenue is accelerating, take rates are stable, and guidance has been raised every quarter of 2025. Is the market overweighting structural fear?

For the full five-lens analysis on regulatory convergence, moat trajectory, and AI disruption risk, read the deep dive here. For the parity clause paradox breakdown, see our companion blog post.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

EU Hotel Direct Share >3pp

Probability

15%

Model Agreement

0.95

Near-unanimous consensus

Our nine-model ensemble assigns only 15% probability that the DMA parity clause ban produces a measurable shift (>3pp) in European hotel direct booking share by year-end 2026. Complementing this, the ensemble sees only 12% probability of take rate compression exceeding 50bps — the financial signature of structural moat damage. Together, these represent the ensemble's strongest conviction: aggregation advantage appears to be holding. See all eight active markets on the BKNG forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 18

Accommodation Take Rate

Bull: Stable (±10bps)Bear: >50bps compression

The most direct financial test of parity clause impact. Ensemble assigns 12% probability of >50bps YoY compression (0.96 agreement). Compression would be the first concrete evidence validating the structural damage thesis.

B2C Direct Channel Mix

Bull: >65%Bear: <60%

The primary defense metric. If travelers keep choosing Booking.com at mid-60%+ rates despite parity clause freedom, it validates that the aggregation value proposition transcends pricing. Ensemble assigns 79% probability of maintaining 60%+ (0.94 agreement).

Revenue Growth (YoY)

Bull: >12%Bear: <10%

Consensus expects $6.1B (+11.7%). Revenue has accelerated from 8% to 16% to 13% through 2025. Below 10% would mark the first deceleration since 2023 and challenge the “aggregation wins” thesis.

Connected Trip Penetration

Bull: Progress updateBear: No mention

Booking's primary moat-deepening initiative. Ensemble assigns 22% probability of reaching 20% penetration by Q3 2026. Any update on adoption trajectory may signal whether switching costs are building fast enough to offset competitive narrowing.

DMA / Regulatory Commentary

Bull: Constructive framingBear: New enforcement

The only escalation signal: ensemble assigns 70% probability of an EC DMA compliance investigation by year-end (0.90 agreement). Management tone on the EUR 8B+ class action and DMA compliance posture may signal the trajectory of regulatory overhang.

Current Assessment

Booking Holdings is classified as “Price Below Value” at medium confidence. At ~25x trailing P/E with $16.2B cash, $5.9B net income, and 31.8% operating margins, the stock appears to embed a discount for EU structural risks that the ensemble assigns low near-term probability to materializing. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 18 earnings release.

Full five-lens analysis with regulatory mapping, moat trajectory, AI disruption risk, and all eight active prediction markets

BKNG Full Analysis BKNG Forecasts