COMP Earnings Preview: 70% EBITDA Miss, 80% Zillow Risk

The Core Question

Compass grew market share from 4.4% to 5.6% organically with 97%+ agent retention — then bet everything on a $10B acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate that pushed leverage from 0x to 4.4x overnight. The same entity nearly went bankrupt under similar leverage in 2007. Our ensemble assigns 70% probability the first combined EBITDA misses target. Is $12.27 pricing in enough risk?

Our four-lens analysis ran 12 debates across consolidation risk, competitive position, narrative-reality gap, and stress testing. Read the full analysis here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

Q1 2026 Combined EBITDA ≥$150M

Probability

30%

Model Agreement

0.92

Strong consensus

Our nine-model ensemble assigns only 30% probability that Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA meets $150M — the threshold needed to support current leverage levels and the deleveraging path from 4.4x to 1.5x by 2028. Meanwhile, synergy realization is a coin-flip at 55%, and the Zillow private exclusives trial carries 80% probability of an unfavorable ruling. Across all eight markets, the ensemble tilts bearish on the merged entity's near-term trajectory. See all markets on the COMP forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 26

Q1 Combined EBITDA Guidance

Bull: >$150MBear: <$125M

30% probability at 0.92 agreement — the highest-information-gain market. All four lenses identify Q1 2026 combined results as decisive. A miss of >15% below projections would escalate FUNDING_FRAGILITY from STRETCHED toward STRAINED. Thursday's call will provide the first combined guidance since the January 9 close.

Year-1 Synergy Progress

Bull: >$100M paceBear: <$75M pace

55% probability at 0.90 agreement — the most balanced market in the set. The $300M+ target was flagged as unprecedented (43x year-1 synergy premium). CIRE's $30M provides only ~20-25% applicable validation at 22x smaller scale. Any early synergy commentary will be the first concrete evidence of integration progress.

Agent Retention

Bull: >97%Bear: <95%

67% probability of holding above 323K agents (95% of 340K) at 0.85 agreement — the lowest model agreement in the set, reflecting genuine uncertainty across seven brands. Agents are independent contractors with no contractual lock-in. A drop below 95% would undermine both the competitive moat and the synergy path simultaneously.

H1 2026 Net Leverage

Bull: <4.0xBear: >4.4x

40% probability of reaching <4.0x at 0.88 agreement. The Stress Scanner found a 15% housing volume decline pushes leverage to 5.1-7.0x — approaching the Realogy/Apollo 2007 distress levels on the same entity. Covenant headroom details are the critical unknown; below 15% headroom would escalate FUNDING_FRAGILITY to STRAINED.

Zillow Private Exclusives Lawsuit

Bull: Favorable rulingBear: Unfavorable

20% probability of favorable outcome at 0.93 agreement — highest model agreement in the set. Court already denied Compass's preliminary injunction (Feb 6). Trial set for June 2026. Private exclusives are more valuable at 340K-agent scale; an unfavorable ruling removes a key differentiator precisely when the merged entity needs to demonstrate competitive value.

Current Assessment

Compass is classified at “Price Above Value” with medium confidence. The ensemble tilts bearish across the highest-information-gain markets — 70% EBITDA miss probability, 60% elevated leverage, 80% unfavorable Zillow ruling. However, housing stability (72% no severe decline), moderate agent retention confidence (67%), and a coin-flip on synergies (55%) mean the thesis is maximally provisional pending the May 2026 combined filing. Read the full four-lens analysis. We will update within 24 hours of the February 26 earnings release.

Four-lens analysis covering consolidation risk, competitive position, narrative-reality gap, and stress testing — 6 signals across 12 structured debates plus eight active prediction markets

COMP Full Analysis COMP Forecasts