CVNA Earnings Preview: Key Metric at Coin-Flip Odds

Disclosure: As of 2026-02-10, the Runchey Research Model Trading Fund holds put options in CVNA. Per our Editorial Policy, these are classified as Event-Driven holdings and may be adjusted immediately following the relevant catalyst event. View our full Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy.

The Core Question

Carvana trades at ~92x trailing earnings, pricing a seamless turnaround continuation. Our Fugazi Filter classified accounting integrity at HIGH risk following the Gotham City Research report. Does Q4 2025 confirm or challenge these concerns?

For the full two-lens analysis covering gain-on-sale timing, DriveTime hidden leverage, and governance concerns, read the deep dive here. For the Gotham City Research response, see our detailed breakdown.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

Other GPU > $420

Probability

52%

Model Agreement

0.67

Models genuinely split

Our nine-model prediction ensemble is nearly evenly split on whether Carvana's “Other” gross profit per unit — the single most important earnings quality metric identified independently by both analytical lenses — remains above $420 in Q4 2025. Management called Q3's $474/unit “higher-than-normalized,” yet this metric drives ~40% of gross profit at near-100% margin. See all seven active markets on the CVNA forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 18

“Other” Gross Profit Per Unit

Bull: >$420Bear: <$350

The key metric. At 52% ensemble probability and 0.67 model agreement, this is the most uncertain and most decision-relevant prediction in the set. Above $420 without unit growth deepens accounting quality concerns; below $350 suggests normalization.

OCF / Net Income Conversion

Bull: >64%Bear: <50%

Cash conversion at 64% is below the 80%+ healthy threshold. Ensemble assigns 18% probability of falling below 50% (0.94 agreement). A decline would indicate reported earnings are increasingly disconnected from cash generation.

Retail Units Sold

Bull: >150KBear: <140K

Management guided Q4 units to exceed 150K. Below 140K would challenge the volume recovery narrative. Other GPU above $420 with units below guidance would amplify the gain-on-sale timing concern.

Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA

Bull: <1.5xBear: >2.0x

Ensemble assigns 86% probability that leverage stays at or below 2.0x (0.94 agreement). Current 1.5x reflects $1.2B+ in debt retired. Deterioration would reverse the deleveraging story underpinning the turnaround thesis.

DriveTime / Related-Party Commentary

Bull: Enhanced disclosureBear: No mention

Following the Gotham City Research report alleging $1B+ hidden cash burn at DriveTime, any management commentary on related-party transactions, servicing fee economics, or auditor status would be materially informative. Silence may amplify concern.

Current Assessment

Carvana is classified as “Price Above Value” at medium confidence. The operational turnaround is genuine — six consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income, $1.2B+ in debt retired, and improving unit economics. However, at ~92x trailing P/E, the stock prices sustained elevated profitability that our ensemble views as a coin flip. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 18 earnings release.

Full two-lens analysis with Gotham response, all seven active prediction markets, and comprehensive monitoring triggers

CVNA Full Analysis CVNA Forecasts