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Flash UpdateDDOG

Datadog (DDOG) Upgraded to ‘Price Below Value’ After Q4 Revenue Accelerates to $953M

Matt RuncheySHORELINE, WA — February 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM EST2 min
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Disclosure: As of 2026-02-10, the Runchey Research Model Trading Fund holds call options in DDOG. Per our Editorial Policy, these are classified as Event-Driven holdings and may be adjusted immediately following the relevant catalyst event. View our full Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy.

Revenue hit $953M (+29% YoY), the stock jumped 17% to $133.64, and our thesis classification upgraded from “Price At Value” to “Price Below Value” with high confidence. Even after the sharp post-earnings move, our assessment suggests the current price has not yet fully absorbed the strength of the operational trajectory.

Price At Value
MEDIUM confidence
Price Below Value
HIGH confidence
+17.0%
$114.27 → $133.64
$953M
Q4 Revenue
+29.1% YoY · 4th acceleration
23%
Non-AI Usage Growth
Up from 20% prior quarter
55%
Customers on 4+ Products
New 10+ tier at 9%
~120%
Net Revenue Retention
3rd consecutive quarter stable

What Drove the Upgrade

The upgrade rests on several reinforcing data points. Q4 revenue reached $953M, growing 29.1% year-over-year and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration — a pattern that is uncommon at $3.5B+ annualized scale. Non-AI customer usage growth surged to 23% (from 20%), dispelling concerns that the platform's momentum was narrowly dependent on AI-related tailwinds. Multi-product adoption deepened to 55% on 4+ products, with a newly disclosed 10+ product tier at 9%.

Guide-and-Raise Pattern
Management's initial FY2026 guidance implies roughly 18.7% growth, but Datadog's well-documented guide-and-raise pattern — where conservative initial targets are systematically exceeded — suggests actual delivery closer to 25% or above. FY2025 was initially guided at 20% and delivered 26%.
Ensemble Consensus
Across all five active prediction markets, our 9-model ensemble assigns 3–10% probability to any form of fundamental deterioration, with near-unanimous model agreement (0.88–0.99). This is the strongest consensus in the DDOG market set's history. View all markets →
Conflicting Consideration
Elevated insider activity persists — the 64:1 lifetime sell-to-buy ratio and zero open market purchases in 12+ months remain the sole unresolved tension against the operational picture. At Datadog's demanding valuation multiples, continued execution at this pace is the baseline expectation already embedded in the price.

View the complete thesis with market-by-market analysis, balancing factors, and key uncertainties

DDOG Full Thesis Assessment

This report was generated by the Runchey Research AI Ensemble using primary SEC data and reviewed by Matthew Runchey for accuracy.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See our Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy and Terms of Service.