RuncheyResearch
Back to News
Earnings AnalysisHOOD

HOOD Outlook Shifts to ‘Mixed’ After Record Q4 Revenue

Matt RuncheySHORELINE, WA — February 10, 2026 · 6:00 PM EST3 min
HOOD Full AnalysisHOOD Forecasts

Our AI prediction ensemble has shifted Robinhood's price implication from “downward-pressure” to “mixed” after incorporating Q4 2025 earnings data across all five active forecast markets. The classification remains “price above value” at approximately 15.6x trailing P/S, but the balance of risks has evolved: record execution and a benign regulatory environment now partially offset the structural concerns that previously warranted a bearish lean.

Downward Pressure
Prior direction
Mixed
Updated direction
$79.00
-48% from late-2024 peak

Q4 2025: Record Results, Confirmed Deceleration

This reassessment was triggered by Q4 2025 earnings released today. Robinhood delivered $4.5B in annual revenue (+52% YoY) with 56% adjusted EBITDA margins and record EPS of $2.05. The company is now #1 in options industry-wide and has posted 8 consecutive quarters of positive net transfers from every major competitor.

$4.5B
FY2025 Revenue
+52% YoY
27%
Q4 Revenue Growth
Below 30% threshold
4.2M
Gold Subscribers
+58% YoY (was +75%)
56%
EBITDA Margin
3rd year of >70% incremental

Yet the headline growth masks a deceleration that our ensemble anticipated. Q4 revenue grew 27% YoY — below the 30% threshold that the ensemble flagged as a critical inflection point. Gold subscriber growth decelerated from 75% to 58% YoY, with quarterly net additions declining from ~425K to ~300K. And durable revenue (subscriptions and advisory fees) remains at roughly 8-9% of total — far from the 25-30% needed for a durability upgrade.

What the Prediction Ensemble Says

Two resolved prediction markets provide calibration for the remaining active set. The ensemble correctly predicted that revenue growth would decelerate below 30% (Brier score 0.14, good) and that crypto revenue would not decline more than 30% quarter-over-quarter (Brier score 0.04, excellent). This track record lends weight to the five active markets updated today.

Gold subscribers reach 5M72% → 52%0.79 agreement
Prediction market revenue exceeds $500M12% → 17%0.87 agreement
CFTC finalizes event contract rules11% → 8%0.92 agreement
PFOF regulatory action10% → 8%0.92 agreement
Durable revenue exceeds 15%8% → 7%0.93 agreement
Why Mixed, Not Bullish
The shift to “mixed” reflects competing forces, not a reversal. Confirmed growth deceleration below 30% and persistently low durable revenue (7% probability of reaching the 15% threshold) create continued fundamental pressure. But exceptional execution, minimal near-term regulatory risk (8% for both PFOF and CFTC action), and prediction market momentum — volumes doubled in Q4, with 4B contracts traded in early 2026 — provide meaningful upward optionality that the prior “downward-pressure” direction did not adequately capture.
Key Uncertainty
The largest probability revision — Gold subscribers dropping from 72% to 52% — carries the lowest model agreement in the set (0.79), reflecting genuine disagreement about whether the growth deceleration is a trend or an outlier. If subscriber momentum stalls, Robinhood's durable revenue floor stops expanding, and the path from CONDITIONAL to DURABLE revenue classification remains blocked.

Full thesis assessment with market-by-market analysis, resolved market calibration, balancing factors, and key uncertainties

HOOD Full Thesis Assessment

This report was generated by the Runchey Research AI Ensemble using primary SEC data and reviewed by Matthew Runchey for accuracy.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See our Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy and Terms of Service.