Intuit delivered a Q2 FY2026 that crystallized the central tension in our 7-lens analysis: an exceptionally strong core business generating $4.7B in revenue (+17% YoY) while its largest acquisition continues to deteriorate. Two frontier AI partnerships — a multiyear Anthropic deal and OpenAI directory integration — validate the DEFENSIBLE competitive moat classification. But Mailchimp's recovery timeline has been pushed beyond FY2026 with management signaling “all options on the table,” escalating CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT from MIXED to QUESTIONABLE.
By the Numbers
What Changed: CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT Escalated
The single signal change this quarter is consequential. CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT moved from MIXED to QUESTIONABLE based on two converging data points: Mailchimp revenue remained “down slightly versus a year ago” and the recovery timeline was explicitly pushed beyond FY2026. This was the monitoring trigger our analysis identified as the escalation threshold.
The $12B Mailchimp acquisition — representing 63% of Intuit's total M&A capital — has now been declining for approximately two years. CFO Sandeep Aujla's statement that management is evaluating “all options” marks a shift from turnaround confidence to strategic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the $961M in share repurchases during Q2 (accelerated pace) and the $13,983M goodwill balance (unchanged, no impairment) deepen the capital allocation questions. The committee assessed this as the point where patience becomes a cost rather than a virtue.
What Was Confirmed
Strengthened to upper bound. The Anthropic and OpenAI partnerships directly validate the moat thesis: AI companies are choosing to integrate with Intuit's platform rather than compete against it. QB Live +50% and mid-market (QBO Advanced + IES) +40% confirm the platform is expanding.
Evidence strengthened. The bear narrative that AI would disrupt TurboTax is being directly contradicted by AI companies partnering with, not competing against, Intuit. TurboTax revenue grew +12% despite IRS returns declining 5%.
The Credit Karma rebound (+23%) and Mailchimp deterioration offset each other, keeping CONDITIONAL as the appropriate label. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at 12-13%.
The AI Partnership Story: Context vs. Core
The most strategically significant development in Q2 was not in the financial results. Intuit announced a multiyear partnership with Anthropic to deploy Claude Agent SDK and Cowork integration across its platform, alongside an OpenAI partnership placing all four Intuit applications in the OpenAI directory. The two largest AI companies have chosen to build on Intuit's platform rather than replicate it.
This is the “context vs. core” distinction our Moat Mapper originally identified: AI models need domain-specific context (tax rules, financial data, customer histories) that Intuit possesses and that cannot be replicated from public training data alone. Over 50% of transactions now involve AI agents, with 3M+ users and 85%+ repeat engagement. The partnerships suggest that frontier AI labs have independently reached the same conclusion our analysis did — that Intuit's data moat is too deep to compete around.
Mailchimp: From Underperformance to Strategic Uncertainty
Four of our seven lenses independently flagged Mailchimp as a material concern before this earnings report. Q2 provided the escalation evidence. Revenue was “down slightly versus a year ago” — the same language used in prior quarters, confirming the decline is not stabilizing. More telling: management pushed the recovery to “sometime beyond fiscal 2026,” a material downward revision from prior guidance that had implied a within-FY2026 inflection.
CFO Aujla's “all options are on the table” language is the strongest strategic action signal to date. GBSG grew 18% overall but 21% excluding Mailchimp — meaning Mailchimp is a 3-point drag on the fastest-growing segment. The Mailchimp strategic action market (divestiture, restructuring, or strategic action by end of FY2026) now sits at 25% probability. The new monitoring trigger: whether management takes action before the FY2026 10-K or continues to absorb the drag.
Forecast Market Scorecard: 4 Resolved
Four markets resolved with an average Brier score of 0.097 — good calibration across the board. Two resolved YES (as predicted with high confidence) and two resolved NO (also correctly anticipated).
| Market | Prediction | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mailchimp revenue declining? | 77% YES | YES | 0.053 |
| Credit Karma below 10%? | 32% YES | NO | 0.102 |
| SBC above 11%? | 67% YES | YES | 0.109 |
| Revenue above $5.25B? | 35% YES | NO | 0.123 |
The ensemble was well-calibrated on both sides: it correctly assigned high probability to Mailchimp decline (77%, resolved YES) and SBC persistence (67%, resolved YES), while appropriately discounting Credit Karma collapse (32%, resolved NO) and the poorly-calibrated $5.25B threshold (35%, resolved NO — Q2 is Intuit's seasonally weakest quarter, making $5.25B effectively unreachable). Eight markets remain active across time horizons through January 2027.
What to Watch
Bottom Line
The counterweight is real: Mailchimp's escalation to QUESTIONABLE capital deployment, SBC at 11.2% widening the GAAP/non-GAAP gap, and the continued $375M insider selling with zero buying. These are not trivial concerns. But Q2 demonstrated that the core business can accelerate through the Mailchimp drag, the partnership announcements validate the moat against the primary bear narrative, and the ensemble's 0.097 average Brier score suggests our analytical framework is well-calibrated on this name.
Full analysis with signal-by-signal assessment, committee discourse, and market-level detail is available on the INTU analysis page.
Analysis produced by multi-model committee (Claude Opus + Claude Sonnet) across 7 analytical lenses. Updated based on Q2 FY2026 earnings call (2026-02-26). Previous analysis from 2026-02-19 remains the baseline. This is educational content for research purposes and does not constitute financial advice.