INTU Earnings Preview: 77% Mailchimp Decline, 65% Revenue Miss

The Core Question

Intuit's stock has fallen 43% while its core business accelerated — TurboTax Live +47%, QBO ARPC +14%, 32% FCF margins. Our analysis finds the AI disruption narrative is INVERTED: AI is a growth driver, not a threat. Yet insiders have sold $375M and bought exactly $0 at post-decline prices. Our ensemble assigns 77% probability the $12B Mailchimp bet is still declining. Is the market right to be skeptical?

Our seven-lens analysis ran 14 debates across revenue durability, competitive position, accounting integrity, and insider behavior. Read the full analysis here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

Mailchimp Revenue Still Declining

Probability

77%

Model Agreement

0.94

Strong consensus

Our nine-model ensemble assigns 77% probability that Mailchimp's revenue decline persists through H1 FY2026 — the most cross-referenced concern across all seven lenses. Meanwhile, SBC is more likely than not to exceed 11% of revenue (67% probability), widening the non-GAAP/GAAP earnings gap. Only 35% see Q2 revenue hitting the high end of guidance ($5.25B), and just 18% expect any insider to make an open-market purchase by August. See all eight markets on the INTU forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 26

Mailchimp Revenue Direction

Bull: Return to growthBear: Continued decline

77% probability of continued decline at 0.94 agreement — flagged by 4 of 7 lenses as the most cross-referenced concern. The $12B acquisition is the largest capital allocation decision under scrutiny. Continued decline escalates CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT from MIXED toward QUESTIONABLE and increases goodwill impairment pressure. A return to growth would be the strongest de-escalation signal in the entire market set.

Q2 Revenue vs. Guidance High End

Bull: ≥$5.25BBear: <$5.25B

35% probability of beating the high end at 0.92 agreement. Q1 delivered 15.5% growth, outpacing 12-13% FY guidance. Beating $5.25B would reinforce the INVERTED narrative thesis — strong execution despite the 43% stock decline. A miss, particularly if Credit Karma and Mailchimp both underperform, would validate the CONDITIONAL revenue classification and fire multiple escalation triggers simultaneously.

Credit Karma Revenue Growth

Bull: >10% YoYBear: <10% YoY

32% probability of falling below 10% at 0.92 agreement. Credit Karma decelerated from 34% to 15% — a 19-point drop in two quarters. Sub-10% growth would reclassify both Intuit acquisitions as underperformers (alongside Mailchimp). Stabilization above 10% would confirm the deceleration was cyclical, not structural. This is the highest-information-gain market jointly with the FTC appeal.

SBC as % of Revenue

Bull: <10%Bear: >11%

67% probability of exceeding 11% at 0.91 agreement. SBC at 10.4% already creates a 48% non-GAAP/GAAP EPS premium. Rising above 11% moves toward the 12% escalation threshold that the Fugazi Filter flagged for ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY. This is the most precisely measurable metric — taken directly from the 10-Q without management interpretation.

Insider Open-Market Purchases

Bull: Any purchaseBear: Zero through Aug

18% probability of any insider purchase by August 2026 at 0.94 agreement. The central unresolved tension: if the INVERTED narrative is correct (stock undervalued, bear thesis wrong), insiders with maximum visibility would be expected to buy. $375M in selling with zero purchases during a 43% drawdown deepens the MISALIGNED classification. Earnings commentary on insider confidence will be closely watched.

Current Assessment

Intuit is classified at “Price Above Value” with medium confidence. The ensemble tilts bearish on peripheral concerns — 77% Mailchimp decline, 67% SBC widening, 65% revenue miss, 82% no insider buying — while the core business tests strong: 79% TurboTax filer growth, 93% no goodwill impairment, DEFENSIBLE moat widening through AI. The central paradox: an exceptional franchise at ~17x NTM P/E with insiders declining to participate. Read the full seven-lens analysis. We will update within 24 hours of the February 26 earnings release.

Seven-lens analysis covering revenue durability, competitive position, accounting integrity, insider behavior, regulatory exposure, M&A value, and narrative-reality gap — 9 signals across 14 structured debates plus eight active prediction markets

INTU Full Analysis INTU Forecasts