MRNA Earnings Preview: Cash Runway Faces 32% Risk

The Core Question

At $37.74, Moderna's ~$14.5B market cap sits only modestly above its $9.0B liquidity position. The market assigns near-zero value to 8 active oncology trials, including one showing 49% melanoma recurrence reduction at 5 years. Has the FDA flu vaccine refusal created excessive pessimism — or is the cash countdown the real story?

For our full five-lens analysis covering regulatory exposure, revenue fragility, funding stress, narrative gaps, and tail risks, read the deep dive here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

Q4 Cash <$7B or Guidance <$1.5B

Probability

32%

Model Agreement

0.92

Strong consensus

Our nine-model prediction ensemble assigns 32% probability that Moderna reports year-end cash below $7.0B or issues 2026 revenue guidance below $1.5B. The 68% base case is that both thresholds are met, preserving the “stretched but not strained” funding assessment. The ensemble also assigns 74% probability to international flu vaccine approval — the strongest positive catalyst in the set. See all seven active markets on the MRNA forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 13

Year-End Cash Position

Bull: >$7.5BBear: <$7.0B

The Stress Scanner pegged $7.0B as the escalation threshold from STRETCHED to STRAINED. Management guided $6.5-7.0B for YE2025 before the $1.5B Ares credit facility ($600M drawn). Cash above $7.5B extends the runway narrative.

2026 Revenue Guidance

Bull: >$2.0BBear: <$1.5B

Management previously indicated “up to 10%” growth for 2026. But that was before the FDA flu vaccine refusal. Below $1.5B would signal the COVID decline is accelerating faster than cost cuts can offset.

Cash Cost Trajectory

Bull: <$4.5BBear: >$5.0B

The strongest bull data point: cash costs fell from $8.9B (2023) to $4.6B (2025E), beating management's plan by $900M. The Myth Meter flagged this as systematically underweighted by bears. Continued execution here extends the runway even if revenue disappoints.

FDA / Regulatory Commentary

Bull: Type A pathBear: No clarity

The RTF on mRNA-1010 blocks the U.S. flu franchise and stalls the flu/COVID combo (mRNA-1083) — the key 2027 revenue driver. Ensemble assigns only 28% probability to a clear FDA path by Sept 2026. Any Type A meeting updates would be the most strategically consequential disclosure.

Oncology Phase 3 Timeline

Bull: On trackBear: Delay

Intismeran (mRNA-4157) Phase 3 data is the highest-uncertainty catalyst — 37% ensemble probability of positive results in 2026. At current valuation, the market assigns approximately zero option value to this asset despite 49% melanoma recurrence reduction at 5 years.

Current Assessment

Moderna is classified as “Price Below Value” at medium confidence. At $37.74, the stock trades near its cash value ($9.0B liquidity vs. ~$14.5B market cap), implying the market assigns minimal value to the operating business and pipeline. The ensemble's strongest positive signal — 74% probability of international flu vaccine approval — could validate the science and open a $350-675M revenue stream. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 13 earnings release.

Five-lens analysis with regulatory risk mapping, tail risk scenarios, and all seven active prediction markets

MRNA Full Analysis MRNA Forecasts