MRNA Q4 2025: Cash Beats by $1.1B, All 6 Signals Confirmed

Moderna reported FY2025 revenue of $1.9B and ended the year with $8.1B in cash, beating its own guidance by over $1.1B. Cost discipline exceeded original targets by $1.2B. Our four-lens committee re-evaluated all six signal classifications against the new data. Result: full confirmation. One forecast market resolved with a good Brier score (0.10), and thesis confidence was upgraded from MEDIUM to MEDIUM-HIGH.

The Numbers

$8.1B

Year-End Cash

Beat guidance by $1.1B+

$1.2B

Cost Beat

$4.3B vs $5.5B plan

~10%

2026 Growth Guide

~$2.09B, no flu revenue

6 / 6

Signals Confirmed

No classification changes

The most watched metric was cash runway. Year-end cash of $8.1B (including a $600M credit facility draw) came in well above the $6.5-7.0B guidance range. Cash operating costs of $4.3B beat the original $5.5B plan by $1.2B — a cumulative $2.1B outperformance over two years. Management guided 2026 year-end cash to $5.5-6.0B, implying roughly 3 years of runway at current burn rates.

Market Resolution + Active Markets

One of seven forecast markets resolved from the earnings data. The remaining six markets have resolution dates in H2 2026 or later and are unchanged.

Q4 cash below $7B or 2026 guidance below $1.5BResolved NOBrier 0.10

International flu approval74% unchanged

Oncology Phase 3 positive interim37% unchanged

FDA Type A meeting grants flu path28% unchanged

Arbutus patent royalty >8%25% unchanged

Why Confirmation, Not Upgrade

Cash management and cost discipline exceeded expectations. But the structural thesis constraints remain: revenue is still 95%+ COVID-dependent and declining 41% year-over-year, the U.S. flu pathway remains blocked by the FDA RTF, and the dominant variable — political risk duration at CBER — is fundamentally unknowable (E0 evidence level). Confirmation means the framework is working correctly, not that the risks have diminished.

Bear Narrative Gap Widens

The Myth Meter lens notes a widening gap between the bear narrative and operational delivery. Cash beat by $1.1B+, costs beat by $1.2B, three late-stage oncology INT studies now fully enrolled, and MNEXT Spike captured 24% U.S. retail share in its first season. The bear narrative's core points (revenue decline, insider selling, regulatory hostility) remain factually valid — but the weighting and interpretation increasingly lag the operational reality.

Full thesis assessment with all 7 markets, resolved market scores, and updated confidence level

MRNA Full Thesis Assessment