New Gold Inc. ceased to exist as a standalone SEC filer this round. Coeur Mining completed its acquisition on March 20, 2026 at the 0.4959x exchange ratio — 102 days ahead of the June 30 deadline — and NGD filed Form 15-12G to terminate registration on March 30. There will not be a standalone NGD Q1 2026 8-K or earnings call. Two of seven active markets in our NGD coverage resolved YES on Coeur's post-closing disclosures: the deal-close market with a Brier of 0.03 and the K-Zone maiden resource market at 0.23. Five markets remain active, dependent on Coeur's Q1 2026 earnings on May 6 or on scheduled year-end resolution dates. Going forward, analytical continuation of this thesis should formally migrate to CDE.
Merger Snapshot
Two Markets Resolve, Five Remain Active
| Market | Prior | Status | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coeur deal close by Jun 30 | 0.82 | RESOLVED YES | Closed 2026-03-20, 102 days early; Brier 0.03 |
| K-Zone maiden resource by YE | 0.52 | RESOLVED YES | 47.6 Mt M&I disclosed 2026-03-24; Brier 0.23 |
| Gold < $2,500 (30+ days) | 0.08 | < 0.01 | Spot $4,596; defer to scheduled 2027-01-15 |
| NGD stock-vs-gold recovery | 0.40 | VOID PENDING | NGD shares no longer trade; governance review needed |
| C-Zone >= 12,000 tpd by Q2 | 0.60 | Active | Awaits Coeur Q1 2026 earnings (May 6) |
| Consolidated AISC < $900/oz | 0.56 | Active | Coeur Q1 2026; per-mine continuity uncertain |
| Rainy River TSF capacity solution | 0.55 | Active | No announcement in post-close window; res 2027-01-31 |
Signal Updates
- Consolidation Calibrator — CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT: PROCEEDING → COMPLETE. Coeur-NGD merger closed; ~1.03B combined shares outstanding; $750M buyback plus initial dividend addresses the original capital-return uncertainty.
- Myth Meter — NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP: DIVERGING → ALIGNED. K-Zone maiden M&I resource (47.6 Mt @ 715K oz Au, 2.8 Moz Ag, 606 Mlbs Cu) quantifies what was previously aspirational mine-life narrative. Stock-gold divergence concern structurally voided.
- Stress Scanner, Gravy Gauge, Fugazi Filter: UNCHANGED in absence of Q1 financials. Higher gold prices (~$4,600/oz vs $2,800-$3,500 originally modeled) marginally strengthen the FCF thesis but do not yet shift the structural assessments. Full re-scoring should follow Coeur's May 6 release.
Thesis Disposition: Price-Below-Value Holds, Confidence Holds at MEDIUM
Implied NGD-equivalent value via the exchange ratio is $8.97 on April 28 (CDE close $18.09 × 0.4959), barely changed from the $9.07 baseline. That stability masks substantial improvement underneath: the deal closed early, K-Zone is quantified, gold is at $4,600+, and capital return is announced. The price-vs-value gap widened in favor of value, supporting a maintained price-below-value classification. Confidence does not upgrade because two new uncertainties offset the resolved ones — Coeur's reporting framework may not preserve per-mine AISC granularity for New Afton and Rainy River, and standard post-merger integration risk now applies but is not yet observable.
A more substantive thesis update is warranted after Coeur's Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026 — the first combined-entity disclosure that will reveal C-Zone throughput, per-mine AISC if reported, and integration cost cadence. Pipeline-wise, this analysis is the historical record of the standalone NGD entity through merger close; subsequent rounds should operate against CDE.
See the original five-lens NGD analysis
The March 2026 NGD baseline with the Consolidation Calibrator, Fugazi Filter, Stress Scanner, Gravy Gauge, and Myth Meter outputs, plus the seven forecast markets that framed the merger thesis.
Public Sources Used
- Coeur Mining press release, March 20, 2026 — completion of New Gold acquisition (0.4959x exchange ratio; ~1,034,524,520 combined shares)
- Coeur Mining post-closing capital markets update, March 24, 2026 — K-Zone YE2025 M&I resource of 47.6 Mt containing 715K oz Au, 2.8 Moz Ag, 606 Mlbs Cu; $750M buyback plus initial dividend; combined 2026 guidance ($3.0B EBITDA, $2.0B FCF)
- New Gold Inc. Form 15-12G, filed 2026-03-30 — termination of SEC registration
- Public commodity price data, late April 2026 — gold spot $4,596-$4,702/oz; consensus 2026 forecast $4,916/oz; bank ranges $4,000-$6,300