NVDA Q4 FY2026: $68B Revenue (+73%), All 8 Signals Confirmed — Thesis Maintained at Price-Above-Value

NVIDIA reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68.1B (+73% YoY), with Data Center reaching $62.3B (+75% YoY, +22% QoQ) and non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 75.2%. Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78B ± 2% implies continued sequential acceleration. Full-year FY2026 revenue reached $215.9B with $96.6B in free cash flow. Our committee re-evaluated all eight signal classifications. Result: all 8 signals confirmed at existing labels, 4 confidence upgrades, thesis maintained at price-above-value.

By the Numbers

$68.1B

Q4 Revenue

+73% YoY

$62.3B

Data Center

+75% YoY, +22% QoQ

75.2%

Gross Margin

Non-GAAP, expanding

$78B

Q1 FY2027 Guide

±2%, sequential accel.

$215.9B

FY2026 Revenue

Full year

$96.6B

FY2026 FCF

~45% FCF margin

$195.92

After-Hours Price

Stable post-earnings

8/8

Signals Confirmed

4 confidence upgrades

All 8 Signals Confirmed

This is the strongest post-earnings result in our coverage universe: every signal classification held, with four receiving confidence upgrades based on new quantitative evidence. No signal was close to a reclassification boundary.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

CLEAN

Confidence upgraded. Vendor financing now quantified at $17.5B (previously estimated at $500M-$2B). Despite the magnitude, it represents 8.1% of DC revenue—a measurable but contained risk.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

ALIGNED

Confidence upgraded. Capital allocation discipline continues: $96.6B FCF, systematic buybacks, no dilutive M&A. Insider selling patterns consistent with 10b5-1 plans, not discretionary liquidation.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

DURABLE

Confidence upgraded. DC revenue grew +22% QoQ—the fifth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. Customer concentration diversifying: CSPs, enterprise, and sovereign AI all contributing meaningful revenue.

Moat Layers

DEEP

Confidence upgraded. CUDA ecosystem lock-in reinforced by Blackwell ramp and $78B guidance. ASIC alternatives remain pre-revenue while NVIDIA ships at scale. Software and networking revenue layers deepening.

Bullet Hole Rejected STRETCHED Reclassification

During the committee discourse, a proposal emerged to reclassify EXPECTATIONS_PRICED from DEMANDING to STRETCHED based on the scale of implied forward growth. The Bullet Hole persona rejected this: at $195.92, the stock prices ~25x forward earnings on $78B+ quarterly revenue run-rate. While demanding, NVDA's demonstrated ability to beat-and-raise for five consecutive quarters makes DEMANDING the appropriate label rather than STRETCHED. The classification holds.

The Vendor Financing Discovery

Vendor Financing: $17.5B vs. $500M-$2B Estimate

Prior to earnings, our analysis estimated NVIDIA's vendor financing exposure at $500M–$2B based on limited disclosures. The Q4 FY2026 10-K revealed the actual figure: $17.5B in total vendor financing commitments—roughly 8-35x the prior estimate. At 8.1% of Data Center revenue, this is material but not existential. The risk is concentrated: if hyperscaler capex decelerates, these financing arrangements could create receivables pressure. The committee classified this as a known risk now properly quantified rather than a new risk, which is why ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY retained its CLEAN label with an upgraded confidence note rather than a reclassification.

The discovery illustrates the value of structured analysis: the original analysis flagged vendor financing as a monitoring trigger despite minimal disclosure. The 10-K confirmed the concern was directionally correct while revealing a magnitude far larger than estimated. This is the kind of gap between narrative and reality that our process is designed to surface.

Prediction Market Updates

Seven markets updated with post-earnings predictions. The dominant pattern: downside risk probabilities declined across operational markets while regulatory/external risks held steady.

Market	Prior	Updated	Shift
DC sequential decline?	14%	8%	-6pp
Gross margin below 70%?	14%	9%	-5pp
Capex deceleration?	11%	7%	-4pp
ASIC >20% share?	20%	14%	-6pp
OpenAI-Broadcom ASIC?	33%	30%	-3pp
Export controls tighten?	25%	24%	-1pp
DOJ antitrust action?	19%	19%	0pp

The bifurcation is notable: operational risk markets (DC decline, margin, capex, ASIC share) all moved lower as Q4 results directly contradicted near-term bear cases. External risk markets (export controls, antitrust, OpenAI-Broadcom) were largely unchanged—earnings data has limited informational value for regulatory and competitive design-win outcomes.

Thesis Assessment: Price-Above-Value Maintained

Classification Maintained

Our thesis assessment remains price-above-value at $195.92. The operational execution was exceptional—$68.1B revenue, 75.2% margins, $78B guidance—but at approximately 25x forward earnings, the market already prices sustained dominance. The 4 confidence upgrades strengthen the bull case without changing the core valuation tension: NVIDIA must grow revenue 25-30% annually at 70%+ margins for years to justify the current multiple. The quarter demonstrated this is achievable. The assessment is that it is already reflected in the price.

The vendor financing discovery ($17.5B) introduces a newly quantified risk vector that was previously underestimated. While not sufficient to shift the classification on its own, it adds a receivables concentration risk that would amplify any capex deceleration scenario. The prediction markets reflect this: capex deceleration probability dropped to 7%, but the conditional impact if it occurs is now higher than previously modeled.

See the full thesis assessment for the complete market synthesis and the NVDA analysis page for the detailed multi-lens committee report.

Analysis produced by multi-model committee (Claude Opus + Claude Sonnet) across multiple analytical lenses. Updated based on Q4 FY2026 earnings call (2026-02-26). Previous analysis from 2026-02-09 remains the baseline. This is educational content for research purposes and does not constitute financial advice.