NVDA Earnings Preview: $65B Quarter Tests $3T Narrative

Disclosure: As of 2026-02-10, the Runchey Research Model Trading Fund holds a long position in NVDA. View our full Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy.

The Core Question

NVIDIA's revenue doubled to $130B with 73% margins, but 88% is Data Center, its largest customers are building competing ASICs (Claude 4 trained on Trainium2, OpenAI signed a 10GW Broadcom deal), and the $3T+ valuation requires 25-30% annual growth at 70%+ margins for years. Every individual risk looks low — that may be precisely the risk.

Our six-lens analysis ran 78 discourse exchanges across accounting, revenue durability, moat, regulation, narrative, and revenue structure. Read the deep dive here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

DC Revenue Declines Sequentially

Probability

14%

Model Agreement

0.94

Strong consensus

Our nine-model ensemble assigns only 14% probability that NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue will decline sequentially through Q2 FY2027. The Blackwell ramp, $500B+ revenue visibility, and supply-constrained demand make absolute decline a high hurdle. But here is the paradox from our thesis: sequential growth is necessary but not sufficient when the price assumes near-peak growth rates. See all seven active markets on the NVDA forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 25

Q4 Total Revenue

Bull: >$66BBear: <$65B

Guidance was $65B. Consensus is $65.7B (+67% YoY). NVIDIA has beaten guidance by $1-3B each of the last three quarters. A miss below guidance would be unprecedented during this cycle and could trigger a May 2024-style repricing.

Non-GAAP Gross Margin

Bull: >73%Bear: <70%

Ensemble assigns 86% probability margins stay above 70% through Q2 FY2027. At 73.6% and $57B quarterly revenue, margins are unprecedented in semiconductor history. Below 70% would escalate COMPETITIVE_POSITION from DEFENSIBLE toward CONTESTED.

Q1 FY2027 Revenue Guidance

Bull: >$70BBear: <$65B

Forward guidance is the most sensitive variable for the $3T+ valuation. NVIDIA has guided conservatively ($1-3B below actual) for three straight quarters. Below $65B would signal sequential deceleration; above $70B reinforces the Blackwell supercycle.

Hyperscaler Capex Commentary

Bull: Sustained >50% YoYBear: Deceleration signals

Ensemble assigns 89% probability hyperscaler capex stays above +20% YoY growth through Q2 CY2026. At 45-57% of hyperscaler revenue, current spending levels have no historical precedent for sustained periods. Any signal of moderation would escalate REVENUE_DURABILITY.

Custom ASIC / Broadcom Commentary

Bull: No timeline shiftsBear: Accelerated adoption

Ensemble assigns 33% probability that OpenAI's Broadcom chips enter production by year-end — the highest-probability risk in our set. Anthropic has signed for 1M Google TPUs. ASIC shipments are projected to surpass GPUs by 2028. Q4 commentary on competitive displacement is the key forward signal.

Current Assessment

NVIDIA is classified as “Price Above Value” at medium confidence. Near-term execution is exceptional — 86-89% favorable probabilities across all seven markets. But at ~$3T+, the valuation requires 25-30% annual growth at 70%+ margins for 3-4 years, with no major ASIC displacement. Revenue is genuine; the divergence is about permanence, not authenticity. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 25 earnings release.

Six-lens analysis covering accounting integrity, revenue durability, competitive moat, regulatory exposure, and narrative-reality gap — plus seven active prediction markets

NVDA Full Analysis NVDA Forecasts