WMT Q4 FY2026: Revenue Crosses $700B as All 10 Signals Confirmed

Walmart reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $180.6B and full-year revenue exceeding $700B for the first time — adding $35B in a single year. Our 5-lens committee analysis finds all 10 signals confirmed with zero classification changes, one evidence upgrade, and a narrowing gap between the tech-ecosystem narrative and P&L reality. The full analysis has been updated.

The Numbers

All three segments grew profits faster than sales in Q4, with adjusted operating income up +10.5%. SG&A leverage was achieved for the first time in years as automation benefits flowed through to the bottom line. Walmart Connect US advertising accelerated to +41% organic in Q4 — the fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration. The “Second P&L” (advertising + membership) contributed “fully a third” of Q4 operating income.

CEO Doug McMillon transitioned to Executive Chairman, with John Furner named CEO. Management characterized FY27 guidance as conservative, and authorized $30B in share buybacks — the largest authorization in company history. A new headwind: MFP pharmacy pricing legislation creates an estimated ~100bps drag on FY27 sales.

5-Lens Committee: 10/10 Signals Confirmed

Each of the 5 lenses (Moat Mapper, Gravy Gauge, Myth Meter, Atomic Auditor, Black Swan Beacon) independently re-evaluated their signals against Q4 data. No classification changed. One evidence upgrade was recorded.

Prediction Markets: 7 Active, All Updated

All seven forecast markets were refreshed with Q4 data. Probabilities shifted lower across most downside scenarios — consistent with the broad confirmation of the operating thesis. The eCommerce profitability reversal market saw the largest move.

The eCommerce profitability reversal market moved the most (−5pp to 7%), reflecting four consecutive quarters of profitability and the CFO stating they “don't even talk about this internally anymore.” Model agreement remains high across all markets (0.87 to 0.97). View all 7 active WMT forecast markets with updated predictions.

Thesis: Price Above Value (Unchanged)

Our classification remains Price Above Value at MEDIUM confidence. The operational case strengthened further, but the valuation question persists: at ~45x P/E, the stock prices in near-flawless execution that so far has been delivered. The Costco precedent — where premium multiples can persist for exceptional retailers — continues to cap our confidence in the downside case.