DOCU Thesis Assessment

The highest-information-gain market (0.80) and most decision-relevant near-term catalyst. The 20% probability with strong agreement (0.94) indicates the ensemble expects management to guide conservatively, likely in the 8-9% range rather than the psychologically important double-digit threshold. This is bearish on the surface but contextually less negative than it appears: DocuSign has a pattern of guiding conservatively and then raising (FY2026 guidance was raised $75M cumulatively). The 80% implied NO probability means the market is unlikely to get a clear narrative-shifting catalyst from the guidance number itself, but actual FY2027 performance could still exceed initial guidance. Classified as neutral rather than escalate because conservative guidance is already priced into the current stock level.

The most consequential market in the entire set, testing the central binary question identified by all 5 lenses. The 55% probability with the lowest model agreement (0.91) represents a genuine tilt toward the positive scenario -- more likely than not that IAM adoption doubles from 25K to 50K within the forecast period. This is a meaningful de-escalation signal because it suggests the platform transition has momentum. However, the relatively thin majority and lower agreement reflect honest uncertainty about adoption pace. If this market resolves YES, it would validate the platform pivot thesis and likely trigger re-rating. If NO, the 'mature cash-flow harvester' narrative solidifies.

At 25% probability, the ensemble views reaching the 103% DNR threshold as unlikely but not impossible. The four-quarter improvement from 98% to 102% is genuine, but jumping to 103% in a single quarter requires acceleration in upsell rates or a meaningful cohort effect from IAM customers. The 75% implied NO probability suggests the improvement trajectory is more gradual than rapid -- consistent with a company stabilizing rather than inflecting sharply upward. Classified as neutral because 102% DNR (the most likely outcome) is neither a de-escalation event nor an escalation trigger per the analysis framework. Only a decline below 100% would trigger reassessment.

The 25% probability is a modestly negative signal for governance alignment. The ensemble expects CEO ownership to be relatively low (below 0.5% of outstanding shares), which would suggest limited personal financial exposure to the company's long-term success. In the context of $12.6M in insider sales across 8 executives under 10b5-1 plans, low CEO ownership would tilt GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT further toward MIXED rather than ALIGNED. However, the practical impact on the thesis is moderate -- DocuSign's PSU-based compensation already ties executive payouts to subscription revenue and FCF targets, providing alignment through compensation structure even if equity ownership is modest.

At 34% probability, the ensemble views IAM reaching 15% of subscription revenue as plausible but not the base case. Currently at ~10-12% (management's 'low double-digit' guidance), reaching 15% would require meaningful monetization acceleration beyond the customer count growth. The 66% implied NO probability suggests that IAM customer growth (55% probability of reaching 50K) is outpacing IAM revenue conversion -- many new IAM customers may be on entry-level plans rather than fully monetized. This market usefully separates adoption breadth from revenue depth: the platform pivot may be succeeding in terms of engagement while still early in monetization.

The second-lowest probability in the set (16%) with the highest model agreement (0.94) provides meaningful competitive reassurance. The existential threat that three lenses independently flagged -- Microsoft bundling full e-signature in M365 -- is unlikely to materialize within the forecast horizon. This gives DocuSign continued breathing room for the IAM transition. However, the 16% is not negligible, and the Moat Mapper's 2-5 year timeline for this threat means it remains a structural overhang even if not an imminent risk. The de-escalation is temporal rather than permanent: the threat is deferred, not eliminated.

The highest probability positive signal in the set (78%) with strong agreement (0.94). The ensemble expects SBC to decline below 20% of revenue, which would begin narrowing the 23pp gap between non-GAAP (30%) and GAAP (6.7%) operating margins -- the most visible component of the DIVERGING narrative-reality gap. While a decline from 20.5% to just below 20% is incremental rather than transformative, the direction of travel matters: it signals improving capital efficiency and moves the GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliation in the right direction. Weight is LOW because the information gain is 0.48 and the practical impact on valuation is modest.

At 30% probability with strong agreement, the ensemble views sustained 10%+ billings growth as plausible but not the base case. The FY2026 billings trajectory (+4%, +13%, +10%) showed notable improvement, but Q4 faces a tougher year-over-year comparison and the Q2 spike may have been anomalous (potentially driven by large enterprise deals or contract timing). The 70% implied NO probability suggests billings growth may moderate to 7-9% in Q4, which would still represent improvement over FY2025 but would not provide the clear acceleration signal needed to build conviction in double-digit revenue growth for FY2027. Weight is LOW given 0.48 information gain.